Federal forecasters have released their monthly wildfire outlook.
The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), a conglomerate of federal firefighting agencies, is forecasting a decrease in large wildfire risk in the northeast corner of the state for July. Last month, the report anticipated above-normal wildfire potential there and around Teton County in September. Now, both areas are improving.
“Fire danger in the higher elevations of Idaho and Wyoming dropped significantly in late June due to wetting rain, colder temperatures, and high-elevation snowfall, which will take a couple weeks to return to normal levels,” a NIFC spokesperson said in the report.
The North American Monsoon, an annual weather event that moves Pacific Ocean moisture northward, could also play a role in tamping down the fire potential. The water content of vegetation, known as fuel moisture, has remained average, which also helps reduce the likelihood of large fires.
Normal potential, however, still means wildfires could flare up.
Historically low snowpack in March combined with less than typical precipitation in June means large fires could form across the southern and western portions of the state through August. As monsoon moisture begins to move farther north away from the state, above-normal potential could return.
“West of the Continental Divide was significantly drier as precipitation was much more localized,” NIFC said. “Most of the west slope and southwestern Wyoming received less than 25% of normal precipitation for June. Temperatures largely followed a similar pattern.”
More than 40% of the U.S. is currently experiencing a drought, which has caused wildfires across the country to increase on average across the past 10 years. In the southern half of the state, continued dry conditions in July will likely keep fire risk high through the rest of the summer.
As peak fire season comes to a close in September and October, all parts of Wyoming are forecast to return to normal potential.
