EMILY FENG, HOST:
Steadfast conservative Senator Bill Cassidy lost his Republican primary race in Louisiana yesterday. He said in his concession speech that our nation is about more than, quote, "one individual," seeming to refer to President Trump who supported the campaign to defeat him. But this one race has a lot to tell us about the state of our politics. NPR Congress reporter Eric McDaniel is here with me in the studio. Hi, Eric.
ERIC MCDANIEL, BYLINE: Hey. Thanks for having me.
FENG: So Bill Cassidy did not just lose this race. He came in third. How does a Republican incumbent lose a primary race so badly?
MCDANIEL: In short, five years ago, Bill Cassidy voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges after the president tried to remain in office despite losing the 2020 presidential election. Trump backed a challenger, and yesterday, Cassidy lost. There are a couple of lessons here. The first is, despite his unpopularity in the country as a whole, President Trump unquestionably has the juice in low-turnout, Republican-only elections. Those very motivated GOP votes still follow the president's lead. That could spell trouble for another Trump target, Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie. The president backed a primary opponent in that race after Massie pushed for the release of the Epstein files.
FENG: OK. So this race in Louisiana, I have to say, has been really confusing to follow, Eric, because there have been changes to the rules. Other state elections that were supposed to happen at the same time were canceled. Why has it been so messy?
MCDANIEL: This, I think, is even more important to understand than the results of yesterday's election. How we set the rules strongly influences who can win elections. The elections that were canceled for seats in the House, that's because the conservative supermajority on the U.S. Supreme Court stripped Civil Rights Movement era protections for Black voters. And that gave Louisiana's government the chance to redraw maps - the areas that Congress people represent in the state - to boost Republican odds there. So they canceled the House primaries to give them enough time to make those changes.
FENG: Redrawing voting maps is not a new thing, though. So this time, was this fair?
MCDANIEL: No, I wouldn't say so, but it is legal unless Congress acts. And it's very much the reality for nearly the whole country. That November election only matters in fewer than 5% of House seats in large part but not only because of how maps are drawn. That means out of 435 races in the House, there are only 20 where the race is truly competitive between the parties. In practice, according to data from Unite America, an election reform advocacy group, about 7% of American voters picked almost 90% of House lawmakers in 2024 because they voted in those primary races.
FENG: You're talking about House primary races, though, right? Bill Cassidy was running for Senate, and he represents the whole state. So these maps didn't have anything to do with his primary loss, right?
MCDANIEL: Right. But there are more ways than just maps that rules can shape who wins elections. Louisiana, for instance, has historically had something called the jungle primary, where people of all parties voted on the same ballot. That meant there was a potential for crossover voters. Cassidy would have been able to attract Democrats and independents, but Republican officials changed the rules so that more or less only Republicans could vote in this closed primary. And my guess is that really contributed to his loss.
FENG: What now, Eric?
MCDANIEL: Well, two Republicans, Julia Letlow and John Fleming, will advance to the Republican runoff in June. The postponed House races won't have a traditional primary. They'll go straight to the general election in November. And Senator Cassidy - he has until January left in his term, and I keep watching him. He's freed from election pressure, and we'll see if he becomes a thorn in the president's side in the closely divided Senate.
FENG: That is NPR's Eric McDaniel. Thank you, Eric.
MCDANIEL: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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