If you love the snowy backcountry, checking the avalanche forecast is just as important as waxing your skis or gassing up your snowmobile.
The Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) offers daily forecasts showing predicted avalanche conditions. Forecasts drop at 4:30 p.m. on the state agency’s website and its mobile app, and will last into May.
Though it’s early in the season, Colorado has already seen several skiers caught in slides. On Mount Bross, south of Breckenridge, a skier survived being buried for approximately five minutes before friends dug them out. Everyone in that group was wearing modern avalanche safety equipment. While that can greatly improve someone’s chances of survival, it’s best to avoid avalanche conditions entirely, explained Brian Lazar, CAIC’s backcountry program manager.
Understanding the avalanche forecast is essential for building a trip plan, he said. That may involve “avoiding certain areas, may involve avoiding certain slopes or certain kinds of terrain features.”
Lazar encouraged people to check the forecast regularly, even on days when they’re not heading into the backcountry, “because it’s just a way to keep your head in the game.”
Every forecast shows the level of avalanche danger for the next two days across the state’s mountains, with levels ranging from low to extreme.
When particularly dangerous conditions arise, Lazar’s agency will issue a special press release urging people to use extreme caution — or to even stay out of the backcountry entirely.
The agency most recently released an advisory ahead of Halloween weekend. A backcountry skier ended up getting caught in a slide during that time frame, but survived. They later told CAIC they made a series of mistakes, paired with “early season excitement to get on snow.”
The stakes are high. Colorado avalanches kill an average of six people a year. The winter of 2020-2021 saw 12 avalanche deaths. Last winter’s death toll was relatively low, with one death recorded, but it was a short season with historically paltry snow levels.
Avalanche safety essentials
Lazar encourages backcountry users — including skiers, snowshoers and snowmobilers — to always carry an essential trio of emergency supplies: a shovel, probe and an avalanche beacon. Avalanche airbags, which can help buoy someone in snow, have become increasingly popular in recent years.
Just as important as having this equipment, however, is knowing how to use it. Lazar recommends taking avalanche safety courses. Avalanche beacon parks, where you can practice locating and digging up beacons, can also play an important role in honing skills. Many of these parks are located at ski areas, though there are several public ones, including a park outside of Minturn that typically opens in December.
The number of people killed by avalanches has stayed fairly consistent for years, even though winter recreation has exploded, especially after the pandemic.
“If you’re seeing the number of fatalities in any given season stay roughly flat, even with increased use, something is working,” Lazar said.
He thinks that’s due to a combination of factors, including increased avalanche awareness and safety training, as well as better equipment. However, all of that can be of little help to someone who chooses to venture into the backcountry alone.
“You’re always going to be safer if you have partners with you,” Lazar said. “If something goes wrong and you’re alone, your ability to respond to something can be zero if you have no one there to help you.”
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