The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) released its September monthly seasonal outlook early this month, predicting “normal significant” fire potential across Wyoming. That might sound like a contradiction but normal doesn’t mean no fires will spark, just that officials aren’t expecting more large fires than usual. It is a step better than significant fire potential, which has been the case for parts of the state in last month’s report.
The forecast comes as the lightning-caused Moonshine Fire continues to grow outside of Wheatland, with more than 7,000 acres burned as of last Monday.
According to NIFC, in August eastern Wyoming saw above-average rainfall. Above average precipitation is predicted for parts of the rest of the state this fall too, which may help wildland firefighters.
“Precipitation during September, coupled with decreasing daylight, is usually effective at dramatically slowing wildfire activity,” NIFC said in a briefing.
But the agency said it may need to reevaluate its forecast if there’s less rain than normal. Increased rainfall also brings the potential for lightning storms, and NIFC reported that last month, fire activity was elevated in August due to a high volume of lightning.
NIFC attributes the strengthening El Niño as the outlook’s main climate driver. This year’s phenomenon is potentially going to be the strongest on record, according to models from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC).
Overall, El Niño may bring heavy precipitation and increased temperatures to some areas, while others will experience significant drought. It is unclear where Wyoming will land and whether the potential increase in precipitation will bring moisture and shorten Wyoming’s fire season.
