The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), a conglomerate of federal and state agencies, released its monthly wildfire potential outlook for June. Parts of Wyoming will continue a trend of above normal wildfire potential this summer, while new areas are now forecasted to have a higher risk of large fires. That includes parts of Northeast Wyoming, which could see large wildfires in June and July that shift into the southwest in August.
The increased wildfire potential is due to a hot, dry spring this year. Most of the Northern Great Basin has received less than 50% of normal rainfall in what is typically the wettest time of the year. If above normal temperatures persist through the summer months, the effects of low precipitation could worsen.
According to the NIFC, Wyoming isn’t the only state seeing a drought.
“Drought continues across the U.S at elevated levels, with nearly 61% of the country in drought,” the NIFC report states.
Record low snowpack and early melt-off in March have also exacerbated Wyoming’s drought. Combined with below normal precipitation, less melting snowpack has caused vegetation growth to be particularly slow since May. Measured by what officials call “live fuel moisture,” vegetation growth is essential for slowing large wildfires in dry areas.
Dry conditions are expected to expand further north into the Rocky Mountain Area in August. As a result, the potential for dry thunderstorms, storms where most precipitation evaporates before hitting the ground, but lightning still strikes, will likely increase. Last year, dry thunderstorms sparked fires that spread between states.
“Their proximity and rapid growth under high winds caused many of these fires to merge,” the NIFC report says. “During this time, multiple fires started in the panhandle of Oklahoma and crossed into the RMA [Rocky Mountain Area], as well.”
While September should return to normal fire potential, wildfires could still happen. Wyoming has already seen several small fires this dry season, and it often sees hundreds each year.
