The latest forecasts for Colorado River water supply are strikingly poor, and the impacts of a dry winter on the region are starting to come into sharp, upsetting focus.
Wide swaths of the Rocky Mountains saw meager snowfall, setting the region on course for the driest conditions in recorded history.
That shortage could threaten major reservoirs, dams and the water supply for central Arizona. About 85% of the Colorado River starts as mountain snow, largely in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming.
Scientists described the conditions as "seriously dry," "dismal" and "depressing" in an otherwise rote briefing on the state of Western drought hosted by federal forecasters.
"The notion that a wet April, May, June, might save us is quickly leaving the building," said Nels Bjarke, a research scientist with the Western Water Assessment. "There is a possibility that we could experience the driest or historical low flows on record."
Bjarke said inflows to Lake Powell from April through July are projected to be 22% of normal after a hot March accelerated snowmelt.
"The forecast at the beginning of April is even more dire than it was before," he said.
Dave DuBois, the New Mexico state climatologist, said those dry conditions would have widespread consequences such as enhanced wildfire risk. He said ranchers may be forced to cut their herds because of limited ability to grow cattle feed.
The dry conditions add tension to already-fraught negotiations over the future of sharing Colorado River water. Leaders from the seven states that use its water are stuck at an impasse despite a fast-approaching deadline and longstanding knowledge of drying trends across the region.
Without a deal among the states, the federal government may force some water users to take cutbacks. A proposal for mandatory cuts — designed to protect water elevations in Lake Powell — outlines major cutbacks on the amount of water flowing to the Phoenix and Tucson areas.
Leaders with the Central Arizona Project, which carries Colorado River Water to the area through a 336-mile canal, have called those proposed cuts "devastating" and hinted that the agency may pursue legal action if they are actually enforced.
Nolie Templeton, a senior policy analyst with CAP, called the Colorado River's dry conditions "very concerning." She explained that low inflows could put Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir "frighteningly close" to the level at which it can no longer generate hydroelectric power.
Templeton anticipates that the federal government will release water from upstream reservoirs to help stave off issues at Powell, but said those releases are not a long-term solution.
"That will hopefully get us through this water year," she said, "While we can continue to work through some really difficult conversations and figure out how to maintain the stability of the system into the future."
Colorado River shortages will not cause taps to go dry in the Phoenix area anytime soon, as water managers around the Valley fill city pipes with water from a variety of different sources. Many cities can lean harder on groundwater or Salt River supplies, for example, during extraordinarily dry years on the Colorado.
Templeton said the region's long-term drought requires long-term solutions.
"It's an unprecedented dry year, but we've had an unprecedented dry 20 to 30 years as well," she said. "The system is likely not going to be generating the same amount of water into the future. How can we work together as a Colorado River Basin to make less supplies go farther?"
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