Pres. Trump is promising U.S. dominance in Venezuela’s oil industry. But industry experts are more skeptical, including in Wyoming – one of the top oil producing states in the country.
Petroleum Association of Wyoming’s Pete Obermueller said ramping up Venezuelan production is a far-off scenario at this point.
“I can't really overstate how bad the situation is in Venezuela with respect to infrastructure,” said Obermueller, whose group is the voice for the vast majority of Wyoming oil and gas producers.
Venezuela was a top oil producer in the ’90s and is still considered to have the richest resources. But mismanagement and underinvestment has led to a ramshackled industry, including power cuts, stolen equipment, corroded pipeline and political corruption, according to NPR reporting.
Which doesn’t bode well for piquing Wyoming operators’ interest.
“Before you can even start talking about accessing oil reserves, Venezuela – and now the United States, I suppose – has a pretty big problem on its hands of creating an electricity grid that's reliable and that can build the infrastructure necessary to even produce resources,” said Obermueller.
“That's not the kind of environment that's conducive to the companies that operate in Wyoming.”
Almost none of Wyoming’s oil companies are global. PAW boasts that more than 80% of operators in Wyoming are small or “mom and pop.”
NPR reported on an analysis by independent research firm Rystad Energy that projects it would take about a decade and $183 billion to ramp up Venezuelan oil production. And so far, there’s very little public interest from major U.S. oil companies.
Venezuela produces about a million barrels a day. Obermueller speculated that number could inch closer to a million and a half.
“And that's just not enough to make a dent in the global commodity that is oil,” he said.
For comparison, Wyoming produces a little less than 300,000 barrels a day. North Dakota, the third top oil state, produces around 1.2 million a day.
But say the billions of dollars in investment and government stability came through for Venezuela – could that hurt companies in states like Wyoming?
“That would require just accepting that it all happens in a vacuum,” Obermueller said.
Technically, Obermueller added that a more saturated oil market could lead to lower oil prices. That’s currently the problem. NPR reports that “the world is making more oil than it needs,” contributing to lower prices.
“If you just assume that oversupply is going to be our reality forever, and you assume that Venezuela can add to that oil supply in great numbers, then sure, it will keep the price of oil down,” he said. “And that's not good for Wyoming producers.”
Basically, Obermueller said lower oil prices make it harder for Wyoming companies to turn profits. It also doesn’t incentivize more production.
Oil prices are hovering around $60 a barrel. Prices have generally declined since their recent peak in May 2022 at $114 a barrel, although there were occasional spikes, like $90 in Sept. 2023, $84 in March 2024 and $70 July 2025.
“It's nice when you go to the gas station and it's around $2.10 – like I filled up this morning, that's lovely,” Obermueller said. “That's not great for our economy, and it's not great for Wyoming's tax revenue.”
Wyoming’s budget hinges on energy production, which is dominated by oil and gas. The industry contributed about $2.42 billion to state and local governments in 2023, with funds trickling into schools, public infrastructure and the state’s sovereign wealth fund.
Obermueller said it’s a tricky balance between oil prices that’ll incentivize industry and keeping gas prices somewhat reasonable. For him, that number is about $75 to $80 a barrel.
And until oil prices hit those upper ranges, NPR reports that it would also be hard for Venezuelan projects to break even.
Obermueller said he’s focused on supporting Wyoming production, and any concerns about Venezuela impacting that are far into the future for him.
“Anybody who thinks they know exactly what's going to happen as a result of Nicolas Maduro's overthrow is guessing at best,” Obermueller said.
Meanwhile, Trump recently met with top oil executives. His hope is they will invest the $100 billion or more needed to spur production. No companies made firm promises.
