A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Joseph Votel is a retired four-star general who served as commander of U.S. Central Command. He oversaw military operations across the Middle East. General, how do we know how much damage Iran has inflicted on U.S. bases in the Middle East? How much?
JOSEPH VOTEL: Good morning. So we're primarily relying on open-source information right now. I think it's a little - it's understandable that the U.S. government or the Department of Defense wouldn't openly talk about the amount of damage that has taken place. But I think, you know, based on what we've seen over the last four or five months, we can conclude that there has been some substantial damage to U.S. regional basing network. And what I mean by substantial is it's widespread and it's operationally relevant.
Just in the last 72 hours, the Iranians have gone after our basing in at least five different countries across the region. So it shows the vulnerability of fixed installations to sustained attack. And of course, the U.S. has relied on this forward basing as kind of a key principle in our presence and strategy in the Middle East. And of course, that has now turned into the primary retaliatory targets that Iran is going after. And we've seen destruction of hangers, fuel depots, radars, satellite communications, air defense equipment, troop locations. And of course, it's caused the U.S. to have to think differently about how it bases and operates in the region.
MARTÍNEZ: So on that, on thinking differently, would it be feasible for the U.S. to relocate military assets to maybe Israel or Egypt? That's something that retired CENTCOM Commander General Frank McKenzie has suggested. I'm curious what you might think of that.
VOTEL: Yeah, no, I think that's right. I think there's a variety of options here. And I would - I think we have to acknowledge that there's probably an active reassessment for the future. So there's a few things we can do. We can rebuild and harden core hubs there. And some of them are already hardened, but we could - they could be rebuilt.
We could reduce exposure in some of the countries where we are seeing more and more strikes, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia in particular. Qatar is particularly vulnerable. We can shift some of these functions westward. And we can certainly expand selective use of facilities into Israel and then use their very capable, protective architecture to help protect that. And we could adopt kind of a distributed network. So I think, as we look forward, I think we're likely to see a combination of all of those things taking place.
MARTÍNEZ: General, last month when we spoke with you last, you said U.S. defenses in the Gulf have been effective against drone and missile threats. Is that still the case?
VOTEL: I think that is. I think most of what we're seeing right now with kind of these retaliatory strikes that Iran is launching is most of them are defeated. They're not having any substantial effect. That said, I think what this does do is it does put a high premium on the force protection measures that the U.S. and our Gulf and Middle East partners have in place here. And there's a real focus on that particular domain.
MARTÍNEZ: How much more can U.S. allies in the Gulf take? I mean, what would be their pain tolerance at this point?
VOTEL: Well, they're demonstrating some level of resilience. I think certainly there's a lot of stress that comes along with this targeting. They are increasingly being drawn more and more into this. And certainly, again, you know, if there are effective strikes against critical civilian or energy infrastructure, I think that's an escalation that I think would propel this into another level of political discussion and concern as we move forward. So I think it's the nature of what is actually being struck. And then, I think, secondly, it's the sustainment of, how long can this go on without having more dramatic effects on economies and business and other things that these countries rely on?
MARTÍNEZ: Do you believe that Iran is willing to risk prolonged war with the United States to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz? Are they willing to just go as far as it's going to take?
VOTEL: I absolutely do. I think that's a big takeaway out of just these last 72, 96 hours that Iran is principally focused on permanent sovereign control of the Strait of Hormuz. And they are willing to accept the risk of large-scale - of conflict before they're willing to relinquish it.
MARTÍNEZ: And one more thing really quick. Did Iran use the temporary ceasefire to rebuild its military capacity? Is that something that's in the realm of possibility?
VOTEL: It absolutely is in the realm of possibility. And they've got some capabilities they can rely on. I would expect that they would try to reconstitute some of those capabilities.
MARTÍNEZ: That is retired General Joseph Votel. Thank you very much for your thoughts on this.
VOTEL: Yes. Good to be with you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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