ADRIAN FLORIDO, HOST:
This week, all eyes are on Venezuela. Overnight, the U.S. military blew up another boat in the Caribbean that it claims was being driven by Venezuelan drug smugglers and said six people were killed. It's the 10th such bombing of an alleged drug boat, bringing the known death toll to more than 40. The military has been sending troops, aircraft and warships to the region for weeks now, and just today, the Pentagon announced it's sending an aircraft carrier. It's all fueling speculation, including by Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, that the Trump administration could be preparing to strike Venezuela itself. Here's Maduro yesterday.
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PRESIDENT NICOLAS MADURO: Not war, not war. Just peace, just peace, just peace, forever, forever, forever. Peace forever, no crazy war.
FLORIDO: To talk more about this, let's bring in diplomat James Story. He was the top U.S. diplomat to Venezuela from 2018 to 2023. He served during President Trump's first term and also under President Biden. Ambassador Story, thanks for joining us.
JAMES STORY: Thank you, Adrian, for having me today.
FLORIDO: As you watch this ratcheting up of U.S. military power in the Caribbean, does it look to you like we're about to go to war with Venezuela?
STORY: Well, if you'd asked me a couple of months ago, I would have said it could have been equally likely that we'd open up an embassy. We were doing some overtures to the Maduro regime through Mr. Grenell. But subsequent to that, it's quite clear to me that Secretary Rubio and the harder line team in Washington have decided to go in this direction, which is a continuation of maximum pressure but to the next level. Under the first Trump administration, he said that - president said that all options are on the table, and now I'd submit that the options are on the front doorstep.
FLORIDO: And so what does it look like the goal here - the end goal here? Is it some kind of military action, or is it something else?
STORY: Well, I ran counternarcotics in Colombia, and I also ran counternarcotics for the Western hemisphere. And these are exquisite assets that are frankly entirely too destructive to be focused solely on a counternarcotics mission. Therefore, the only assumption and analysis you have to give to it is that the possibility of some type of an action against the Maduro regime is possible.
FLORIDO: What other possibilities are there, short of military action?
STORY: Well, certainly, I think that the - for the administration, the preferred outcome is that somebody close to Maduro does one of three things - extradites him to the United States, exile him to another country or removes him from the scene in a more permanent manner rather than the United States to get involved.
I would imagine at this stage of the game, with additional assets in the region, that the president is mulling over decisions to do something within the 12-nautical-mile zone - in other words, within the territorial sea of Venezuela - or on land, which he has indicated publicly in quite a few occasions, and then to see how that reaction from those around Maduro would be. That's - those are some of the options that the president has in front of him.
FLORIDO: The U.S. has been putting pressure on Venezuela's government going back several administrations. President Trump, during his first term, recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as the legitimate president. He hardened sanctions. You were around during some of that pressure campaign. Why this much more hawkish approach now during Trump's second term?
STORY: Well, there's a - you know, what we've asked - the international community and the Venezuelan people themselves, what they've - what we've asked of the Democratic opposition - they've done everything. They've gone to the streets. They've protested. They boycotted elections. They negotiated with the regime. They ran an election just last year and won it in a convincing manner, yet nothing has worked.
And I think that there are many people who are not unsympathetic to the view that there is - as Clausewitz said, war's politics by other means, or politics is war by other means, rather. It may be that at this stage of the game, the president has decided that he wants to ramp up the pressure to give opportunity to those around Maduro to take action in the short term.
FLORIDO: The president's made America First his main platform. It's been very clear throughout his presidency so far. Why this focus on South America?
STORY: Well, you have the biggest out-migration outside of wartime on the planet, and you certainly have the largest out-migration in the history of the Western hemisphere. You have 9 million Venezuelans that have had to flee that country seeking a better life. The President, when he ran this year - last year for the presidency, he made a focus on the Tren de Aragua, which is a very small subset of people from Venezuela, of course. Most Venezuelans are just seeking a better life, but he focused on the idea of migration being a problem, Tren de Aragua from Venezuela being a particular problem.
But let's add on to that. You also have Iran operating freely inside Venezuela. You have Cuba supporting the Venezuelan regime. And you have strategic competitors - Russia and China - also being engaged in Venezuela. So there's a lot going on here. This is an issue of democracy. It's an issue of human rights. It's an issue of migration. It's an issue of stability.
FLORIDO: You've got just about 30 seconds, Ambassador. What would be the immediate implications for Venezuela and its relationship with the U.S. if Maduro is forced out? - about 25 seconds.
STORY: I think it really depends on who's left. There are a lot of people around Maduro that are very bad actors, Diosdado Cabello being one of them, Vladimir Padrino Lopez, the head of the military, being another. The Venezuelan people showed in July of last year that they are ready for a change. They voted overwhelmingly to do so. But certainly, there's going to be criminality and illegality that has to be handled inside of the country, especially with the FARC, ELN and Tren de Aragua.
FLORIDO: I've been speaking with James Story, the United States' former top diplomat to Venezuela. Thanks so much for your time.
STORY: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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