A new University of Wyoming poll shows that Republican U.S. House candidate Harriet Hageman leads Congresswoman Liz Cheney by nearly 30 points as primary election day looms.
Thesurveywas conducted by the Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center between July 25th and August 6th. It received 562 responses from likely Wyoming voters in the upcoming primary and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.
Overall 57 percent of those planning to vote in the Republican primary will vote for Hageman with only about 28 percent indicating they will vote for Cheney. It also shows that 41 percent are voting against Cheney as opposed to strongly supporting one of her opponents. UW Political Scientist Jim King said that says a lot.
“When you have a candidate, particularly Hageman, with a large lead but roughly two-fifths of her support comes from people who are opposing the incumbent, that clearly puts us in a referendum type of election, and Cheney is losing the referendum,” said King.
While the poll shows that 98 percent of Democratic crossover voters support Cheney, King noted that she’s only attracting 43 percent of independents while 41 percent of those support Hageman.
“For Cheney to be successful, in particular, she needs to do very well among independents, and she's not doing well enough to overcome Hageman's advantage among Republican identifiers,” said King.
He added that the numbers show that party switching by Democrats will have little impact on the final result.
