How other countries respond to Trump's tariffs could hurt certain industries in Wyoming, like the state’s biggest export – soda ash.
Soda ash is made from a mineral called trona, and it goes into everything from batteries to glass to soap to iPhone screens. Wyoming has a natural leg up in this industry, because the world’s largest known trona deposits are in the state’s southwest corner.
The four main companies operating in Wyoming export to most countries, according to Jon Conrad, director of governmental affairs for Green River-based Tata Chemicals. Conrad said Trump’s blanket 10% tariffs on all countries, some amounting to even more, make him uneasy.
“Because it's the United States, I’m saddened to say, almost the United States against the world here,” he said, adding they’re waiting to see how other countries respond. “It's kind of a terrible business strategy, really, not knowing what's next, with very little insight based on the hurricane that this has created.”
Conrad said it’s hard to forecast how the market will play out, as this situation is unprecedented. However, if retaliatory tariffs are aggressive, he said it could hurt the industry’s revenues, and in turn Wyoming.
“Our revenues would decrease likely,” Conrad said. “With the Permanent Wyoming Mineral Trust Fund and that severance tax, it definitely could have an impact on the state.”
A severance tax is a state imposed tax on non-renewable natural resources.
Valued around $11.1 trillion, Wyoming’s Permanent Mineral Trust Fund is the state’s biggest investment fund. When needed, it helps cover costs of running the state, like education, infrastructure projects and municipal loans. It’s seen as a key part of the state’s funding future, and is largely funded by severance taxes on energy and mineral industries.
Last year, the trona sector paid about $25.7 billion dollars in severance tax, and is valued as a $650 billion industry in the state.
Conrad said they are in talks with Wyoming’s congressional members about tariff concerns.
“They have a difficult role, supporting the president as well as watching out for the state of Wyoming,” he said. “I know that right now, the larger news items are steel, food, appliances, automobiles. But recognize within all of those products, except maybe bananas, soda ash is within that.”
Conrad said what would give the industry “peace of mind” is if the tariffs were commodity or material specific, rather than the countrywide blanket approach.
One country Wyoming’s operators are keeping a close eye on is China, he said. That’s because the country is a top competitor of synthetic soda ash.
“So could China export cheaper into, say, one of our foreign countries based on the tariffs that we've now imposed on that foreign country? Absolutely,” Conrad said, adding that it could push Wyoming companies out of the market.
He emphasized it’s a wait-and-see kind of game. As of now, Tata has yet to feel impacts. However, layoffs were initiated at their competitor.
London-based WE Soda recently bought out Genesis Alkali, making them “the largest producer of soda ash globally,” according to the company. About a month later, the company laid off 48 non-union workers. According to WyoFile reporting, this was due to post-acquisition consolidations. These layoffs come several months after 30 union workers were unexpectedly let go by former owner Genesis Alkali.
But at Tata, Conrad said operations are smooth outside of the looming tariff concerns. He said they just ended their fiscal year with record production. Also, a new nuclear microreactor project is underway at Tata. The goal is to deploy eight reactors at their Green River facilities that could produce the steam and power needed to run the trona operation. Right now, the majority is produced from coal power.
“From a legislative, political and sustainability perspective, [coal] has been challenging, to say the least,” Conrad said.
Licensing is still being ironed out, but Conrad said the goal is to shift to nuclear by the early 2030s.
“Which will then enable us to secede the utilization of coal,” he said. “Because right now, the majority of our steam is produced by coal, recognizing the long-term and from a business model we weren't sure what that would be.”
Tariff impacts to this project are less of a concern, as Conrad said the technology needed is U.S.-based.
